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Significant Snowstorm Monday Night

weather

This image shows the Hi Res NAM. At 3 AM Tuesday morning, heavy snow is falling on the area with a temperature of 15 degrees.

Monday night, a low passing to our south through the Carolinas will create a period of moderate to heavy snow over the area.

Expect snow to start around 5 PM tomorrow, and start really getting going after 10 PM or so. Snow should end around 7-8 AM on Tuesday morning. Due to the extremely cold air in place– temperatures should be around 14-17 when it is snowing– no rain or mix of any kind is expected.
Snow will stick right off the bat to all surfaces and probably shutdown most schools and businesses Tuesday. If the snow gets going earlier, it could also impact the PM commute tomorrow. Snow-to-liquid ratios will be quite high due to the depth of the cold air, creating a very light, fluffy snow.

Accumulations throughout the county will probably range from 5-9″, with northern Montgomery County seeing closer to 5″ and southern Montgomery County seeing closer to 9″. If you remember the March 17th storm from last year, the timing, accumulations, and snow consistency should be somewhat similar.

There is a very high chance MCPS closes Tuesday, almost a sure bet as long as nothing in the forecast changes drastically (still very much possible).

I’ll have a final update out tomorrow afternoon before the snow starts.

Feel free to ask any questions you may have below.

SREF

The image above depicts the SREF ensemble forecast. Each plume is a model scenario. The highest member shows 15″ and the lowest member shows a dusting, so this model helps depict the range of possibilities. This is actually stationed over DC, which, being south of MoCo, will see a little more snow. Hence the average of 9.5″.

Article by Josh Karpatkin, MoCo Student staff meteorologist

About Josh Karpatkin

Josh is a junior at Walter Johnson. He participates vaguely in Science Olympiad, and is a frequent comer at the WJ political forum club. He has been interested in weather since the record breaking blizzards of 2010, and also enjoys rock climbing, board games, and flying RC planes.

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