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Weathering the Weather: Wednesday Clipper

A storm similar in evolution, but different in results, to the storm January 6th that dropped 4-5″ of snow is on tap for tomorrow. What makes it different? A more northern track of the upper level low that puts us out of position for the heaviest precipitation and allows warmer air to sneak north. Snow should generally break out by 7-8 AM and last through the early evening, possibly mixing with rain in the afternoon if the warm push is strong. It may end as a little freezing drizzle. Rates looks to be generally light, and the precipitation may be intermittent or cut off early. Generally a half inch to an inch should accumulate, with some sloppiness in the afternoon as some melts. Northern parts of the county have better odds at getting more accumulation. The combination of light rates, a late start, and the perception that the last delay was unwarranted makes me believe that we will have a full day tomorrow. I’d say the odds are 20% delay, 5% early release, 15% closure, 60% open on time.

Especially with this storm, there is a significant amount of uncertainty. Some models, such as the NAM below, simulate no precipitation over the area and thus no snow. There is also some chance that a heavier band develops and drops 2-4″, which would obviously increase the odds of disrupting school.

Finally, there appears to be a more significant threat looming for this Saturday. More on that later.

About Josh Karpatkin

Josh is a junior at Walter Johnson. He participates vaguely in Science Olympiad, and is a frequent comer at the WJ political forum club. He has been interested in weather since the record breaking blizzards of 2010, and also enjoys rock climbing, board games, and flying RC planes.

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