It looks like the pieces have come together yet again for a small shot of snow in the morning, coinciding with exam week. Generally 1-2″ is most likely over the county, starting between 5 and 6 AM and lasting until noon to 2 PM. Rates should generally be light. Despite this, cold temperatures will allow quick stickage to roads. As we saw last week, it only takes a little snow at rush hour to cause serious problems.
There is bust potential with this. A few models want to dry out the northwest side of the storm, leaving us with just flurries. The models depicting this are generally not as accurate toward the end of their runs so I don’t think it has a high chance of happening.
Due to the enlogated period of snow and light rates, this setup is not ideal for a delay. I’d say the odds are 10% closure, 40% delay, 50% on time. I’d lean on time as my official call but a delay would not be surprising.
Trivia: I’ve been keeping snowfall records since last year. For us to exceed the snow we had last year to this date, we would need 1.6″, within the range of forecasts. However, we need 6.5″ by the 21st to stay on top and the odds of that are not great, so the lead probably will not last long.