On October 23rd, 2022, 69-year-old Xi Jinping emerged as China’s leader after convincing the communist party to remove the two-time Presidential term limit. His dominance as China’s President can be compared to Mao Zedong, the founder of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. With China being the second largest economy in the world, and its military spending second only to that of the United States, Xi’s historic reign, along with the installation of his loyalists on the Politburo Standing Committee, marks a new era where the focus is predicted to shift from a domestic agenda to an international one. Xi’s re-election has emboldened the President to press forward on hardline policies that will have far-reaching impacts on the world stage.
Since 2012, Xi Jinping has made the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland a clear part of his intentions. Taiwan does not agree with Xi’s agenda. Short of officially declaring itself as an independent country, Taiwan views its islands and people as a separate state with a thriving economy and a democratic government. Tensions between China and Taiwan have dated as far back as 1949 when Mao Zedong’s victorious Communist Party drove Chiang Kei-shek’s Kuomintang (KMT) from Beijing to Taiwan at the end of the Chinese civil war. Chiang ruled and renamed the island the Republic of China (ROC).
The CCP has never recognized Taiwan as an independent country but more so as one of China’s many provinces. In contrast, the Taiwanese have never considered themselves as part of the PRC that was created under Mao. Until recently, China had planned to completely reunify by 2049, but the timeline seems to have been expedited after a visit from U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island nation in early August. Beijing has condemned the two-day meeting with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen as “extremely dangerous” and, shortly after, launched military drills around Taiwan’s territorial waters. They also published “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era,” a white paper with strong language that emphasized their need to reclaim Taiwan.
The Chinese government prefers to reunify with Taiwan peacefully. They have suggested a way where the two countries could work under the “One Country, Two Systems,” similar to the arrangement currently in place with Hong Kong. The policy offers the ROC the opportunity to maintain its democratic government. In return, Taiwan has to recognize itself as part of the motherland. However, as they have observed crackdowns on Hong Kong’s civil liberties and the suppression of pro-democracy activists, Taiwan has refused China’s proposal.
President Tsai reiterates that her country “will never accept ‘one country, two systems’. The vast majority of Taiwanese public opinion also resolutely opposes ‘one country, two systems,’ and this is also the ‘Taiwan consensus.’” In reply, Xi insisted that reunification is an “inevitable requirement” and that the Taiwanese people “must understand that independence will only bring hardship.” Beijing has enshrined into its Community Party doctrine a statement “resolutely opposing and deterring separatists seeking ‘Taiwan independence’,” and reserves the right to take all necessary measures, including military force, to achieve this goal.
Although no military incursions have yet occurred on Taiwan, China has been successful at isolating the island diplomatically with its “One China” policy. Under this approach, foreign countries wishing to have relations with China must acknowledge that there is only one Chinese government, the CCP, and that Taiwan is part of it. Many countries, including the U.S., have chosen to cut ties with the island nation. Currently, less than 15 nations recognize Taiwan as an independent country, which makes it more difficult to form Asia-Pacific partnerships.
Taiwan’s general consensus among its government and citizens is that it is important to maintain the status quo. While Taiwan operates itself as separate from China, it has not officially declared itself as an independent nation. China’s impatient tone and aggressive timeline toward reunification have put both Taiwan and the international community on edge.
At the Hoover Institute event at Stanford University, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warns, “There has been a change in approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years. And instead of sticking with the status quo that was established in a positive way…[Xi is] profoundly disrupting the status quo and creating tremendous tensions.”
Taiwan plays an important role on the world stage. Geographically, the island nation is located along the first island chain, which is a series of U.S.-friendly territories that serve as a layer of protection for the Americas against the mainland. The islands are a barrier to keep the Chinese military from expanding too far into the Pacific Ocean, particularly to nearby U.S. military bases in Guam and Hawaii. Economically, a disruption in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait would be a catastrophic disruption to international trade. It is estimated that $3.4 trillion in shipments, or 21% of global trade, passes through the waterways of the Taiwan Strait.
A PCR-controlled Taiwan would also compromise one of the most important industries, the semiconductor chip, which is the brain behind every computer system. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) exports approximately 65% of the world’s computer chips. In the U.S., 90% of advanced microchips are produced by Taiwanese manufacturers. Any disruption to the supply chain could impede the production of everything consumers rely on from cell phones to gaming systems as well as everyday appliances. More importantly, these semiconductors are necessary for more crucial systems that are instrumental to banking and national defense.
Protection of Taiwan from the People’s Republic is viewed by some countries as a necessity. Although the U.S. does not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, Blinken echoes President Biden’s sentiment, “We are determined to make good on our commitment to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act and support [Taiwan’s] ability to defend themselves.” The agreement, signed by former President Jimmy Carter in 1979, is a promise by the United States to provide military resources to Taiwan for protection against invasions. Although the United States stands as Taiwan’s ally, it avoids appearing to encourage Taiwan’s independence from the mainland. The United States also attempts to dissuade Beijing from using force in order to capture democratic Taiwan.
The world awaits China’s President Xi Jinping’s next move with hopes for a peaceful outcome. As Blinken states, “I hope that Beijing will come to a place where it actually sees the merits in making sure that differences are peacefully resolved.”
Written by Huy Changvu of Cabin John Middle School
Photo courtesy of The New York Times