The midterm elections this November were expected to be a blowout; the sitting president’s party traditionally loses seats. Concerns of rising inflation and several high-profile geopolitical conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, meant that Republicans nationwide were crowing about a predicted “red wave.” It never happened. In fact, the midterm elections were a pleasant surprise for Democrats, who narrowly held control of the Senate and lost the House by a narrow margin, effectively a victory.
Mainstream political analysts and reporters couldn’t believe it, begging the question: how did Democrats pull off one of the most surprising election results in post-2016 memory? The answer lies in record-breaking turnout from progressive youth, which was powerful enough to make up for the near-fatal misjudgments of Democratic party leaders. Democrats “won” these midterms in spite of themselves, because young voters managed to overcome the out-of-touch politics and moderacy hurting national Democrats and the Democratic National Committee (DNC).
For years, moderate Democrats have rebuffed the progressive, farther-left wing of their party as “too radical” or “bad politics.” Up until four years ago, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) kept a “blacklist” of political consultants who worked on insurgent campaigns, barring them from future DCCC employment. Though this practice has since ended, Truthout illustrates that the DCCC still consistently gives more money to moderate candidates, even when progressives have a better shot at winning. Media outlets like The Washington Post, The Economist and The New York Times all ran stories this election cycle about powerful Democratic sources “turning” on the far-left of their party. One prominent moderate Democratic think tank proclaimed, “[i]f Democrats manage to hold on… it will be in spite of the party brand,” asserting that the “party brand” is seen as too extreme. The message was clear: progressivism would cost Dems the midterms.
On the contrary, we have ample evidence that moderates hurt the party. Last spring, many progressives publicly expressed their displeasure with the DNC’s support of moderate Democrat Henry Cuellar—notably, Cuellar received flack for being pro-life. While some news reports claimed abortion was not a defining issue in these midterms, FiveThirtyEight rebuked this after the results, calling abortion “[o]ne of the most salient issues in the country.”
Another prominent example is noted centrist Democrat, Senator Joe Manchin. The Brennan Center observed in 2021 that House redistricting could be “marred by extreme partisan gerrymandering.” A bill outlawing gerrymandering was obstructed by Manchin. As MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki put it, this allowed Republican officials to “[draw] themselves five seats,” needed to flip the House.
The Working Families Party highlights an instance of moderate Dems shooting themselves in the foot again. DCCC Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney poured money into a primary campaign and ran as a pro-police moderate against incumbent progressive Mondaire Jones. Maloney won the primary in a strongly blue district, only to lose in the general election. Despite the insistence that progressive policies hurt Democrats, moderates may want to examine their own effect on party success.
Furthermore, the strategy of moderates distancing themselves from progressives ignores the widespread popularity of progressive policies. CNBC found majority support for Medicare for All and free public college. Public Citizen reports that 75% of Americans believe our tax system “[f]avors the rich and has too many loopholes,” and 60% support imposing a wealth tax on those with more than $50 million in assets. One Yale poll found nearly 80% support for the Green New Deal among registered voters (provided they were not told which politicians supported the proposal).
So, how did the Democratic party come out on top despite the missteps of powerful party moderates? Young voters coming out in droves. Courthouse News collected exit polls, finding that young voters were the deciding factor in stopping a “red wave.” These voters skew progressive, supporting drastic climate action, student-loan forgiveness, single-payer healthcare and free college—all policies championed by progressives. Young progressives will pave the future of the Democratic party if Democratic leaders can drop the complacent moderacy plaguing their party and take advantage of this emerging group.
Written by Avni Koenig of Thomas S. Wootton High School
Graphic courtesy of Lindsey Zhang of Richard Montgomery High School