In week seven of the 2022 NFL season, the Washington Commanders were set to face off against the Green Bay Packers at home. Their record was 2-4, and Taylor Heinicke was prepared to make his first start of the season, in place of an injured Carson Wentz. Not many people would have expected the Commanders to be in playoff contention four weeks later.
With Heinicke as their starting quarterback, Washington went on to win three out of their next four games, including a Monday night win versus the previously undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. Jack Del Rio’s defense has been dominant, and Heinicke has been generating enough offense to put Washington over the edge.
As we head into week 11, the return of Wentz inches closer, and the starting QB controversy begins. The question arises: has Washington’s success come as a result of Taylor Heinicke being placed at the helm, or should their success be credited to the improved running game and defensive play?
Following their 12-7 win vs the Bears in week 6, the Commanders ranked 24th in the league in rushing yards per game (95.5). However, with Heinicke as their starter, Washington has averaged 137.75 yards on the ground per game. This potent run game has allowed Washington to shift the time of possession in their favor, and keep opposing offenses off the field.
Even prior to Heinicke’s replacement of Wentz, Washington ranked eighth in the league in time of possession. However, as of week 11, they rank first in this department. Over the past four games, the recipe for success has been to run the ball, and to leave Taylor Heinicke in manageable third downs where he can make the right throw. This strategy has paid dividends, as Washington beat the Philadelphia Eagles in week 10, a team that went into the game with an 8-0 record. This blueprint was in full effect in Washington’s game against the Eagles, as they were able to run a total of 81 plays to the Eagles’ 47.
Looking at general quarterback statistics, it seems as if the differences in play between Wentz and Heinicke has been insignificant. Through week six, Washington sat in the middle of the pack in terms of passing yards per game (224.8). Over the past four games, Heinicke has averaged 210 passing yards, a touch below Washington’s averages with Wentz as their starter. But the cause of Washington’s success goes beyond passing yards. Another factor to take into account is Heinicke’s mobility. Wentz took 23 sacks over six games, while Heinicke took just nine sacks over five games. Heinicke has allowed Washington to remain ahead of the chains, keeping them in manageable third down situations.
Being in manageable third downs has allowed Washington to convert at a higher rate, which was on full display in their win against the Eagles, as Washington converted 60% of their third downs. A higher third-down conversion rate has led to more points on the scoreboard. Washington has averaged 22.5 points per game with Heinicke, while Wentz was only able to muster an average of 17 points per game as the starter.
Through six games, Carson Wentz led Washington to a 2-4 record. With Heinicke in command, Washington has won three out of their last four games. Heinicke will only get more comfortable as each game goes by, and if he can keep Washington ahead of the chains, limit turnovers and find Terry McLaurin on a consistent basis, there would be no reason to hand the job back to Wentz.
Written by Ben Kim of Walter Johnson High School
Graphic courtesy of Rudy Essiomle of Thomas S. Wootton High School