Mass Migration, the unknown consequence of global warming

We see the effects of climate change throughout our lives, whether it be through the melting of the ice caps or the rise in global temperatures. One effect caused by climate change is mass migration—the relocation of large groups of people from one geographical area to another. According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, nearly 30.7 million people displaced in 2020 fled climate-related problems such as floods, wildfires, and droughts. 

Mass migration will continue to dominate global issues, and experts estimate it to rise substantially by 2050. Researchers are finding that resource scarcity, the frequency of extreme weather events, and other climate-related problems result in record-breaking mass migration numbers. Last year, weather-related disasters uprooted nearly 30 million from their homes. A study by the International Migration Review indicates that human migration due to droughts will increase by at least 200%. Current sea levels in the Western Pacific, rising at a rate of 12 millimeters per year, have already submerged eight islands, forcing inhabitants to flee to other countries.  

In many mainland countries, a more significant trend of people migrating within their borders, from rural towns to populated cities. But even in cities, migrants still face many problems. The areas people relocate to resolve their personal climate-related issues, like resource scarcity, but these areas cannot handle the influx of migrants, especially on a large scale. Chris Field, a climate scientist who has led the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, states, “In regions with high levels of corruption or political or criminal violence, it is much more challenging to make progress on vulnerability reduction.” Essentially, countries that already face instability, like Iraq, Russia, and South Sudan, are not suited to manage an increase in migrants, which can lead to increased pressure on resources and instability. 

 Syria is an excellent example of how increased migration and lack of government response could lead to problems. Between 1999 to 2011, Syria experienced two long-term droughts, where nearly 75% of farmers experienced total crop failure. In 2011, an estimated 1.3 to 1.5 million rural citizens migrated to urban places in Syria. However, due to the lack of government response to environmental and development problems, uprisings began to emerge within neighborhoods that primarily consisted of rural migrants.

Furthermore, migrants were forced to seek refuge internationally as the cities faced other social and economic problems, and as a result, many migrants were forced to seek refuge internationally.  Erica Bower, a Ph.D. student at Stanford, states, “climate change is a threat multiplier—it can exacerbate economic insecurity or political instability, which in turn may lead to migration.” This is a prominent issue that many regions in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia face. 

For instance, in El Salvador, many leave their villages because of crop failure, droughts, or flooding. They travel to cities where they become victims of gang violence and, as a result, flee the country. But, despite the increasing rate of climate refugees, people who cross international borders because of climate-related problems are not granted refugee status. This fundamental issue results in these people not having the same legal protection as refugees fleeing persecution. 
 With increasing climate-related migrations, debates are emerging to address the issues. “One problem is just the complete lack of understanding as to how climate is forcing people to move,” says Amali Tower, founder of Climate Refugees. Even though there are unclear aspects of mass migration, its effects are evident, and it is crucial to take action.

Written by Sushma Katta of Richard Montgomery High School

Graphic courtesy of Kiana Hajikarimloo of Northwest High School