On Tuesday November 3, 2020 over 300 million Americans have the civic responsibility to cast their votes to determine the next President of the United States. “Every vote counts!” is an enshrined democratic motto used to encourage involvement in the most fundamental privilege offered by the Constitution to its citizens. However, is each American voice truly heard, and is it heard equally?
In reality, only 0.00016% of the United States, or 538 men and women, vote in the Presidential Election. For the past 232 years, the true reason behind why Americans gather at their local polling stations every four years is not to vote for their President, but to cast ballots for the Electoral College members. When voters shade in the bubbles next to the names of their candidates of choice, they are really voting for their congressional district electors who make-up the year’s Electoral College. With the exception of Maine and Nebraska, U.S. states have a “winner-takes-all” policy where they appoint pre-selected electors from the party of the state-wide popular vote winner. Each state is allotted a number of electors equivalent to the number of Congress members from their state. The District of Columbia, which has no Congressional representation, has three electoral seats. The group of 538 officials convenes in December of the voting year to finalize their ballots, with 270 electoral votes determining the next President of the United States. For the most part, electors typically cast their choice for President in accordance with their constituents’ choices, although there is no clearly stated Constitutional obligation to do so. As a matter of fact, in 2016, three “faithless” electors voted for Colin Powell in Washington State rather than their constituents’ choice of Hillary Clinton. Such defections by the electors have generated multiple lawsuits that will likely be at the forefront of future Supreme Court case debates.
The Electoral College system, which we currently have in place, has greatly influenced Presidential candidates’ campaign strategies. “Former Presidential candidate Scott Walker summed up our current system of electing the President by saying the nation is not going to elect the President, twelve states are,” NationalPopularVote.com reports. In fact, former governor Scott Walker might be right. During the initial nine weeks of the 2020 Presidential campaigns, twelve states have received 97% of the general-election campaign events. Nearly 90% of the $1 billion of television ad dollars were concentrated in six battleground states. Moreover, topics such as the preservation of fracking that seems to be relevant to only a minority number of states are put on the national pedestal for debate. Thousands of residents in the battleground state of Pennsylvania rely heavily on the oil and natural gas industry for their livelihood, and the state’s elusive 20 Electoral College votes are crucial to the Presidential candidates’ “road to 270”. Former Vice-President and Democratic Presidential hopeful, Joe Biden, has evaded specific discussions of banning fracking despite his party’s platform on renewable energy and climate change. Donald Trump is reportedly going as far as considering issuing an executive order in support of the fracking industry to garner votes from Pennsylvanians.
With the “winner-take-all” Electoral College system which most states currently use, the outcome of the election often lies in the hands of a small group of voters who live in states considered “swing states.” Based on voting data from past elections, states such as California, New York, and Maryland are almost 100% likely to achieve a statewide popular vote majority leaning towards the Democratic candidate. A slight shift to the right of a handful of voters in these states will still leave a Democrat majority. Since certain parties are almost “guaranteed” to win certain states, candidates do not feel compelled to campaign in these locations. The states in which Presidential candidates have focused their campaigns are battleground states where demographically, the number of Republican trending voters roughly matches the number of Democratic trending voters. Therefore, a small movement in the way in which the people in these states vote would have an impactful outcome on the Election, as all of the state’s Electoral College points would be allotted to the majority party, no matter how infinitesimal the margin.
Due to the power which these twelve states wield to the outcome of the Presidential Election, politicians planning to run for office and their political allies funnel funding and other benefits to these swing states in an attempt to gain the loyalty of the voters. According to John Hudak, author of Presidential Pork, battleground states receive 7% more Presidentially controlled grants and twice as many disaster declarations. “Flyover states are so irrelevant, the Presidential candidates don’t even bother polling them to see what issues might be of concern to their voters,” nationalpopularvote.com further reports.
Since the ratification of the Constitution, there have been five Presidential Elections where there were discrepancies between the popular vote winners and the Electoral College winners, with instances favoring the Republican party. In recent times, Al Gore was defeated by George W. Bush in 2000 and Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump in 2016 despite both Democratic candidates winning the country’s popular votes.
The founding fathers of the Constitution had instituted the Electoral College for various reasons. For one, they wanted to ensure that the office of the Presidency is selected by an educated and informed group of electors. Additionally, they felt that it would be important to protect the choices of all voters, including those in less densely populated regions. This means that farmers and factory workers in rural areas cannot be forgotten and that their voices not be drowned out by the voters in the densely populated metropolitan areas. However, a Gallup poll surveyed as recently as September of 2020 indicated that 61% of Americans feel that the Electoral College is outdated and does not duly represent the will of the people.
According to the American Bar Association, more than 700 proposals have been introduced in Congress to reform or eliminate the Electoral College. Despite these numerous attempts to alter the system which America uses to determine the President, none have been successful. This is the case mainly as the Electoral College was established by the Constitution and a Constitutional amendment would require a rare two-thirds of Congress to approve, in addition to three-fourths of the state legislatures. In short, abolishing or altering the Electoral College system itself would be difficult, but a new movement is gaining momentum.
The National Popular Vote bill, which has already been signed by fifteen states and the District of Columbia, will maintain the underpinning of the Constitution’s requirement of the Electoral College while using the country’s popular vote result to select America’s next President. The National Popular Vote bill is a pact which is ratified by states, in which the states’ legislatures agree that they will allocate all of their Electoral College votes to the winner of the national popular vote. The Constitution does not specify how the states need to allot their Electoral College votes, and the National Popular Vote bill would be a workaround of the Electoral College without needing an Amendment. Supporters of this bill insist that a national popular vote would be a more just system. Based on the 2010 U.S. Census, the total population of the top 100 largest cities is equivalent to the total population of rural America, invalidating the misconception that a national popular vote might benefit Democrats thought to be centered in big cities.
This year, as citizens cast their votes at their local polling stations or via mail-in ballots, many will surely ponder about the meaning of their individual votes. Who is really selecting America’s President and who is the President representing — the country, or the twelve battleground states?
Article written by Huan Changvu of Cabin John Middle School
Photo Courtesy of MDGovPics via Creative Commons