Since the inception of his campaign for the Democratic nomination, former Vice President Joe Biden has cemented himself as Trump’s most daunting opponent. His supporters point to his Pennsylvania roots, his centrist attitude, and his traditional demeanor as the reasons for his appeal to moderates, who they believe will turn the tide in battleground states. Though this “electability” tag doesn’t fuel public excitement, Biden’s commanding lead in the popular vote and delegate count after the second Super Tuesday shows that it has been working.
Senator Bernie Sanders stands on the opposite side of the electability standard. The 78-year old is known for his left-wing agenda and distrust of big business. Recently, the Sanders campaign made headlines for the Senator’s praise of the late Cuban dictator Fidel Castro’s literacy program. For many, it seems like a Sanders-Trump duel would easily go the incumbent’s way. But at the same time, Sanders has beat Trump in each of the last 10 national head to head polls, showing America’s clear preference.
So what would a Sanders-Trump matchup look like?
In short, it would be much more contentious than both Biden and Sanders staffers expect. The post-nomination political climate will be completely different than the one we live in right now.
Sanders’ case that head-to-head polling should prove his electability is hardly novel. In fact, this theory was a key part of Hillary Clinton’s successful quest for the Democratic nomination in 2016. In March of 2016, head-to-head polling between Trump and Clinton gave the former First Lady as much as a 20 percent lead, a clear sign that Clinton could win it for the Democrats. As we now know, the dynamics of the election would change after the formal nomination process was over. Sanders’ campaign and supporters must be prepared to tackle the same hurdles that stunted Clinton’s lead in the months leading up to the general election.
For one thing, Sanders has to prepare for another viciously negative contest. As explained by Washington Post contributor and Dartmouth College professor Brendan Nyhan, other Democratic candidates have consistently avoided attacking Sanders, both in 2016 and 2020. This is not because the Senator is completely clean. His expensive medicare-for-all bill would balloon the federal debt by trillions of dollars, and his student debt plan could potentially stunt economic transactions for months. Sanders has avoided criticism because unlike Biden, he has maintained a clearly-focused liberal character throughout his political career. Unfortunately, Sanders’ personal image won’t protect him in the general election. Trump’s campaign will tear apart his seemingly socialist platform in front of millions of undecided moderates.
Republicans will likely start with fear-mongering. By connecting Sanders’ socialism to the angst of the Red Scare, they will suppress older Sanders supporters and, much more importantly, galvanize older Trump supporters. The fear-mongering strategy will allow Trump to frame himself as the candidate with the most American values.
In 2016, this use of negative advertising may have made the entire difference for Trump’s campaign. Data collected from political advertisements in the last week of the 2016 election cycle showed that 92% were negative, while only 3% were positive. Most of these advertisements were flooded into the battleground states that Trump would win, including Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. But here’s where 2020 Sanders and 2016 Clinton diverge: Sanders supporters will be much more difficult to suppress.
You may remember that a key issue with both Trump’s advertisements and the inserted propaganda of Russian meddlers was the targeted suppression of voters. Even officials from Trump’s own staff defined suppression as the key tactic in Trump’s agenda, legal or not. Clinton’s close push to the center was meant to bring moderates out in volume, but the lack of excitement her campaign generated left her vulnerable to Trump’s efforts. Sanders’ push to the left will ensure that socially and fiscally liberal individuals—particularly young people—will come out in droves, even with negative advertisement attempting to hold them back.
Sanders has one remaining task, one that most politicians would never desire. He has to articulate a different message to moderates than he does to his deep-left base. He must show that he is dependable, and that he can save the party. If he does this, he can have a near equal grasp on the center-left as Clinton did in 2016, and his tiebreaker will be the incredible turnout he has from his supporters on the far-left.
It won’t be the landslide victory Bernie expects, or the landslide loss his opponents expect. It will be a contentious battle until Tuesday, November 3rd.
Article by Shariar Vaez-Ghaemi of Montgomery Blair High School
Graphic by Nicole Fang of Richard Montgomery High School