We are currently tracking a storm that could bring some accumulating snow to much of the DC metro area on Tuesday. Computer models have steadily increased the amount of snow that will fall throughout the day, suggesting that 3 to 5 inches of snow will fall between Tuesday morning and Tuesday night. As this forecast is still two days out and snowstorms are notoriously unpredictable, there is a significant chance snow accumulations will be higher or lower than forecast. As temperatures will be in upper teens to low 20’s throughout the storm, the snow will be of the dry, powdery variety that does not make good packing snow. Due to the cold air, all the snow is expected to stick and there should be no mixing with other types of precipitation. Areas farther south and east, particularly in northern Virginia, should receive higher snowfall levels.
If you are looking for hope of a bigger snow, the above Storm Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) model has it. As you can see, the average of all the runs is 10 inches, and the highest is an incredible 33 inches! However, this model is typically way too wet, and these amounts are probably greatly exaggerated. Nonetheless, school closures on Wednesday are possible.
Article by Josh Karpatkin, MoCo Student staff meteorologist and member of DC Severe Winter Weather